{
  "schemaVersion": 1,
  "generatedAt": "2026-07-19T17:37:25+00:00",
  "generatedAtLabel": "2026-07-19 17:37 UTC",
  "updateStatus": "partial",
  "markets": {
    "a": {
      "code": "CN-A",
      "shortTitle": "A 股杠杆",
      "title": "A 股杠杆",
      "deck": "A 股的优势是显性融资数据足够完整：余额、买入、账户、维保比例和证券明细都有公开口径。因此可以回答“到底在增还是在减”，也能看到余额之外的脆弱性。",
      "state": "主动去杠杆，缓冲同步变薄",
      "asOf": "2026-07-16",
      "answerHtml": "融资余额正在<strong>下降</strong>：1 日 -1.00%，5 日 -3.29%，20 日 -3.18%。平均维持担保比例为 272.65%，位于近一年约第 6 百分位。",
      "signalIntro": "余额方向、账户缓冲和个股拥挤度分别回答不同问题。融资余额下降通常降低存量风险，但若维保比例同时快速下降，说明资产价格或担保物质量也在施压。",
      "metrics": [
        {
          "name": "全市场融资余额",
          "frequency": "日度",
          "source": {
            "name": "两融账户统计",
            "url": "https://data.eastmoney.com/rzrq/zhtjday.html"
          },
          "value": 28376.23,
          "unit": "亿元",
          "change": "1日 -1.00% · 5日 -3.29% · 20日 -3.18%",
          "note": "显性信用存量最新位于近一年约第 82 百分位。",
          "direction": "down",
          "label": "减少"
        },
        {
          "name": "平均维持担保比例",
          "frequency": "日度",
          "source": {
            "name": "两融账户统计",
            "url": "https://data.eastmoney.com/rzrq/zhtjday.html"
          },
          "value": 272.65,
          "unit": "%",
          "change": "20 个交易日前 293.42% · -20.77 个百分点",
          "note": "比例越低，账户缓冲越薄；当前约处于近一年第 6 百分位。",
          "direction": "up",
          "label": "承压"
        },
        {
          "name": "有两融负债投资者",
          "frequency": "日度",
          "source": {
            "name": "两融账户统计",
            "url": "https://data.eastmoney.com/rzrq/zhtjday.html"
          },
          "display": "205.59万",
          "change": "较前日 -3,783 户",
          "note": "负债人数下降与融资余额下降方向一致，支持“正在去杠杆”，而不是单纯的大户头寸迁移。",
          "direction": "down",
          "label": "减少"
        },
        {
          "name": "前十融资集中度",
          "frequency": "日度明细",
          "source": {
            "name": "上交所 + 深交所",
            "url": "https://www.sse.com.cn/market/othersdata/margin/detail/"
          },
          "value": 12.91,
          "unit": "%",
          "change": "同一交易日 4,088 只证券明细",
          "note": "集中度不算极端，但半导体与高波动成长股占据多席；压力发生时需要结合成交额判断偿还冲击。",
          "direction": "watch",
          "label": "观察"
        }
      ],
      "historyLabel": "全市场融资余额 / 亿元（60 个交易日）",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2026-04-20",
          "value": 26803.34
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-21",
          "value": 26867.9
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-22",
          "value": 27004.3
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-23",
          "value": 27042.02
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-24",
          "value": 26929.63
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-27",
          "value": 27085.44
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-28",
          "value": 27086.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-29",
          "value": 27124.55
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04-30",
          "value": 26955.47
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-06",
          "value": 27367.35
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-07",
          "value": 27663.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-08",
          "value": 27823.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-11",
          "value": 28130.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-12",
          "value": 28298.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-13",
          "value": 28528.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-14",
          "value": 28619.91
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-15",
          "value": 28561.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-18",
          "value": 28718.79
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-19",
          "value": 28770.65
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-20",
          "value": 28835.94
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-21",
          "value": 28752.54
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-22",
          "value": 28781.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-25",
          "value": 29035.1
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-26",
          "value": 29108.22
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-27",
          "value": 29149.03
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-28",
          "value": 29206.31
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05-29",
          "value": 28909.36
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-01",
          "value": 28833.83
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-02",
          "value": 28847.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-03",
          "value": 28932.07
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-04",
          "value": 28996.92
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-05",
          "value": 28857.02
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-08",
          "value": 28623.38
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-09",
          "value": 28661.68
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-10",
          "value": 28579.67
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-11",
          "value": 28526.93
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-12",
          "value": 28523.04
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-15",
          "value": 28763.53
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-16",
          "value": 29028.71
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-17",
          "value": 29309.39
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-18",
          "value": 29437.72
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-22",
          "value": 29728.25
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-23",
          "value": 29789.6
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-24",
          "value": 29926.43
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-25",
          "value": 30101.61
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-26",
          "value": 29895.02
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-29",
          "value": 29808.64
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06-30",
          "value": 29970.51
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-01",
          "value": 30069.8
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-02",
          "value": 30004.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-03",
          "value": 29807.13
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-06",
          "value": 29701.41
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-07",
          "value": 29570.23
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-08",
          "value": 29381.0
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-09",
          "value": 29341.49
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-10",
          "value": 29227.87
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-13",
          "value": 28891.14
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-14",
          "value": 28780.98
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-15",
          "value": 28663.33
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-07-16",
          "value": 28376.23
        }
      ],
      "ranking": [
        {
          "code": "601318",
          "name": "中国平安",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 373.95
        },
        {
          "code": "603986",
          "name": "兆易创新",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 218.1
        },
        {
          "code": "688256",
          "name": "寒武纪",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 208.31
        },
        {
          "code": "600030",
          "name": "中信证券",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 190.92
        },
        {
          "code": "600519",
          "name": "贵州茅台",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 187.9
        },
        {
          "code": "688008",
          "name": "澜起科技",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 171.6
        },
        {
          "code": "688525",
          "name": "佰维存储",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 125.27
        },
        {
          "code": "688981",
          "name": "中芯国际",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 124.88
        },
        {
          "code": "600900",
          "name": "长江电力",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 120.48
        },
        {
          "code": "601899",
          "name": "紫金矿业",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 114.69
        },
        {
          "code": "600036",
          "name": "招商银行",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 111.96
        },
        {
          "code": "603019",
          "name": "中科曙光",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 96.74
        },
        {
          "code": "601166",
          "name": "兴业银行",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 95.74
        },
        {
          "code": "688041",
          "name": "海光信息",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 92.6
        },
        {
          "code": "601138",
          "name": "工业富联",
          "market": "SH",
          "balanceYi": 89.27
        }
      ],
      "evidence": [
        {
          "title": "融资余额与账户缓冲",
          "text": "账户统计覆盖沪深市场，可用于同口径趋势。维保比例来自行业汇总，不代表每个账户，也不能直接推算强平线。",
          "grade": "A-",
          "frequency": "日度"
        },
        {
          "title": "交易所证券明细",
          "text": "上海与深圳同日明细用于个股集中度。首版不拿融资余额除以静态市值，因为自由流通市值与停牌/制度变化会制造假精度。",
          "grade": "A",
          "frequency": "日度"
        },
        {
          "title": "制度断点",
          "text": "融资保证金比例与标的范围会调整。页面保留变化方向，但历史分位需要在制度变化后重新校准。",
          "grade": "A",
          "frequency": "事件驱动"
        },
        {
          "title": "仍缺少的量",
          "text": "全市场融资余额 / 自由流通市值、融资偿还 / 个股 ADV 与强平卖出 / ADV 仍值得加入，但需要稳定的同口径成交和流通盘数据。",
          "grade": "C",
          "frequency": "待扩展"
        }
      ]
    },
    "hk": {
      "code": "HK",
      "shortTitle": "港股杠杆",
      "title": "港股杠杆",
      "deck": "港股不能照搬 A 股：公开数据里没有日度、全市场、证券级融资余额。更诚实的办法，是用 SFC 行业融资贷款做低频锚，再用 HKEX 的产品和成交结构观察高频反身性。",
      "state": "融资存量上升，抵押缓冲仍厚",
      "asOf": "2025-12-31 / 高频代理更新至 2026-07",
      "answerHtml": "SFC 报告显示证券保证金融资贷款为<strong>2,164 亿港元，同比 +22%</strong>，但平均抵押覆盖仍有 4.5 倍。存量杠杆在增加，不过并非立即接近强平；更值得每日盯住的是短卖、L&amp;I 和牛熊证成交是否同步升温。",
      "signalIntro": "港股页面把“半年融资存量”和“日/月度市场压力”放在不同栏位。短卖占比高可能是对冲，也可能是方向性压力；L&I 与结构化产品成交高说明反身性更强，但不代表净多头或净空头。",
      "metrics": [
        {
          "name": "证券保证金融资贷款",
          "frequency": "半年/年度",
          "source": {
            "name": "SFC Financial Review",
            "url": "https://www.sfc.hk/-/media/EN/files/IS/publications/Financial-Review-of-the-Securities-Industry-for-the-year-ended-31-December-2025.pdf"
          },
          "value": 2164,
          "unit": "亿港元",
          "change": "同比 +22%",
          "note": "最接近港股全行业融资存量的官方锚，但不是日度，也不含所有银行证券质押贷款。",
          "direction": "up",
          "label": "增加"
        },
        {
          "name": "平均抵押覆盖",
          "frequency": "半年/年度",
          "source": {
            "name": "SFC Financial Review",
            "url": "https://www.sfc.hk/-/media/EN/files/IS/publications/Financial-Review-of-the-Securities-Industry-for-the-year-ended-31-December-2025.pdf"
          },
          "display": "4.5倍",
          "change": "头部 20 家融资商占行业 85%",
          "note": "覆盖倍数较厚，缓冲好于只看贷款增幅时的直觉；但行业集中意味着头部风险政策会影响全市场信贷。",
          "direction": "neutral",
          "label": "缓冲"
        },
        {
          "name": "短卖成交占比",
          "frequency": "日度代理",
          "source": {
            "name": "HKEX 日报",
            "url": "https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Statistics/Securities-Market/Short-Selling-Turnover-Today?sc_lang=en"
          },
          "value": 20.57,
          "unit": "%",
          "change": "2026-07-07：短卖 657.5 亿 / 全市场 3,197.1 亿",
          "note": "高短卖比可能来自对冲或做市，不能当作净空仓；与价格下跌、借券成本和成交收缩同向时才更危险。",
          "direction": "watch",
          "label": "偏高"
        },
        {
          "name": "L&I 日均成交",
          "frequency": "月度代理",
          "source": {
            "name": "HKEX Monthly Highlights",
            "url": "https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Statistics/Consolidated-Reports/HKEX-Monthly-Market-Highlights?sc_lang=en"
          },
          "value": 63,
          "unit": "亿港元",
          "change": "2026 前五个月同比 +40%",
          "note": "杠杆与反向产品按日重置，成交增长会提高临近收盘的再平衡敏感度；但成交不等于 AUM 或净方向。",
          "direction": "up",
          "label": "升温"
        },
        {
          "name": "窝轮 + 牛熊证成交占比",
          "frequency": "月度代理",
          "source": {
            "name": "HKEX Jun 2026",
            "url": "https://www.hkex.com.hk/Market-Data/Statistics/Consolidated-Reports/HKEX-Monthly-Market-Highlights?sc_lang=en"
          },
          "value": 6.0,
          "unit": "%",
          "change": "窝轮 1.7% + 牛熊证 4.3%",
          "note": "结构化产品把短周期 gamma 与收回价风险带入市场。该占比描述交易结构，不可与融资贷款直接相加。",
          "direction": "watch",
          "label": "观察"
        }
      ],
      "historyLabel": "港股保证金融资贷款 / 亿港元（低频锚）",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2024-12-31",
          "value": 1774
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12-31",
          "value": 2164
        }
      ],
      "ranking": [],
      "evidence": [
        {
          "title": "SFC 行业融资贷款",
          "text": "监管口径、覆盖行业，但只在定期财务回顾中发布。它适合判断存量趋势，不适合回答今天是否去杠杆。",
          "grade": "A",
          "frequency": "半年/年度"
        },
        {
          "title": "HKEX 短卖成交",
          "text": "日度且接近市场压力，但短卖成交不是未平仓空头，也包含对冲和做市。需要与价格、借券和流动性联合解释。",
          "grade": "B+",
          "frequency": "日度"
        },
        {
          "title": "L&I、窝轮与牛熊证",
          "text": "产品成交能捕捉日内再平衡和障碍价风险。若未来获得稳定 AUM，可进一步估算嵌入杠杆与再平衡 / ADV。",
          "grade": "B",
          "frequency": "日/月度"
        },
        {
          "title": "明确不可观测",
          "text": "公开免费数据无法提供港股全市场日度融资余额。因此页面不会制造“港股融资余额今日增减”的伪答案。",
          "grade": "A",
          "frequency": "结构性限制"
        }
      ]
    },
    "us": {
      "code": "US",
      "shortTitle": "美股杠杆",
      "title": "美股杠杆",
      "deck": "美股显性融资只能用 FINRA 月末聚合数据确认，日内风险则更多藏在 options、leveraged ETP 和波动率里。最合理的呈现不是一个实时总数，而是月度存量与高频反身性并排。",
      "state": "显性融资快速扩张，短周期敏感度高",
      "asOf": "2026-06 / 高频代理另行更新",
      "answerHtml": "FINRA 客户 margin debit 已升至<strong>1.502 万亿美元</strong>，单月 +6.11%、同比 +49.02%；相对 cash 与 margin free credit 的比率为 3.41 倍。",
      "signalIntro": "FINRA 是月度存量，不是实时数据；VIX 和 0DTE 是市场状态，不是融资余额。页面把它们并列，是为了识别“高存量 + 低缓冲 + 高频反身性”的组合，而不是相加。",
      "metrics": [
        {
          "name": "客户保证金债务",
          "frequency": "月度",
          "source": {
            "name": "FINRA Margin Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/margin-accounts/margin-statistics"
          },
          "display": "1.502万亿美元",
          "change": "月环比 +6.11% · 同比 +49.02%",
          "note": "这是全市场最权威的显性 margin debit 聚合，但 FINRA 通常在下月第三周发布，因此不能用来解释当天波动。",
          "direction": "up",
          "label": "增加"
        },
        {
          "name": "债务 / Free Credit",
          "frequency": "月度",
          "source": {
            "name": "FINRA Margin Statistics",
            "url": "https://www.finra.org/rules-guidance/key-topics/margin-accounts/margin-statistics"
          },
          "display": "3.41倍",
          "change": "Free credit 合计 440.9 亿美元",
          "note": "比单看债务更接近缓冲概念。它仍不是可立即动用的统一现金池，也不能直接推出强平概率。",
          "direction": "up",
          "label": "偏紧"
        },
        {
          "name": "VIX 现货",
          "frequency": "日内/日度",
          "source": {
            "name": "Cboe VIX",
            "url": "https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/vix"
          },
          "value": 18.77,
          "unit": "",
          "change": "07/17/2026 · 前收 16.73",
          "note": "波动率从低位上升，但仍低于过去一年高点 35.30。VIX 衡量期权隐含波动，不是杠杆存量。",
          "direction": "watch",
          "label": "升温"
        },
        {
          "name": "SPX 0DTE 成交占比",
          "frequency": "月度/滚动",
          "source": {
            "name": "Cboe 0DTE",
            "url": "https://www.cboe.com/tradable-products/0dte"
          },
          "value": 59,
          "unit": "%",
          "change": "SPX 同日到期期权占比",
          "note": "0DTE 的净 gamma 方向取决于客户买卖和做市商仓位；占比高代表日内对冲敏感度高，不代表必然加剧下跌。",
          "direction": "watch",
          "label": "高敏感"
        }
      ],
      "historyLabel": "FINRA 客户 margin debit / 十亿美元（月度）",
      "history": [
        {
          "date": "2025-06",
          "value": 1007.961
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-07",
          "value": 1022.548
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-08",
          "value": 1059.723
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-09",
          "value": 1126.494
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-10",
          "value": 1183.654
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-11",
          "value": 1214.321
        },
        {
          "date": "2025-12",
          "value": 1225.597
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-01",
          "value": 1279.042
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-02",
          "value": 1253.192
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-03",
          "value": 1220.922
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-04",
          "value": 1304.281
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-05",
          "value": 1415.557
        },
        {
          "date": "2026-06",
          "value": 1502.072
        }
      ],
      "ranking": [],
      "evidence": [
        {
          "title": "FINRA Margin Statistics",
          "text": "覆盖 FINRA member firms 的客户证券保证金账户，按月末聚合。FINRA 明确提示成员口径调整也会造成月度变化。",
          "grade": "A",
          "frequency": "月度"
        },
        {
          "title": "Free Credit 缓冲比",
          "text": "债务除以 cash 与 margin free credit 的合计，比债务单值更完整；但不同客户之间不可互相净额结算。",
          "grade": "A-",
          "frequency": "月度"
        },
        {
          "title": "VIX 与 0DTE",
          "text": "Cboe 直接发布，适合观察日内敏感度。净 gamma 需要客户方向、delta、到期分布和做市商头寸，首版不伪造。",
          "grade": "B+",
          "frequency": "日/月度"
        },
        {
          "title": "Leveraged ETP 下一步",
          "text": "合理扩展是用当前 AUM × (|倍数|-1) 估算嵌入杠杆，再用 |β(β-1)| × AUM × |标的涨跌| / ADV 估算再平衡压力。",
          "grade": "C",
          "frequency": "待扩展"
        }
      ]
    }
  },
  "errors": [
    {
      "source": "a_accounts_and_details",
      "message": "ConnectionError: ('Connection aborted.', ConnectionResetError(104, 'Connection reset by peer'))",
      "at": "2026-07-19T17:37:25+00:00"
    }
  ]
}